Is resilience a normative concept?

In this paper, we engage with the question of the normative content of the resilience concept. The issues are approached in two consecutive steps. First, we proceed from a narrow construal of the resilience concept – as the ability of a system to absorb a disturbance – and show that under an analysis of normative concepts as evaluative concepts resilience comes out as descriptive. In the second part of the paper, we argue that (1) for systems of interest (primarily social systems or system with a social component) we seem to have options with respect to how they are described and (2) that this matters for what is to be taken as a sign of resilience as opposed to a sign of the lack of resilience for such systems. We discuss the implications of this for how the concept should be applied in practice and suggest that users of the resilience concept face a choice between versions of the concept that are either ontologically or normatively charged

Behavior of susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on heterogeneous networks with saturation

We investigate saturation effects in susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models of the spread of epidemics in heterogeneous populations. The structure of interactions in the population is represented by networks with connectivity distribution $P(k)$,including scale-free(SF) networks with power law distributions $P(k)\sim k^{-\gamma}$. Considering cases where the transmission of infection between nodes depends on their connectivity, we introduce a saturation function $C(k)$ which reduces the infection transmission rate $\lambda$ across an edge going from a node with high connectivity $k$. A mean field approximation with the neglect of degree-degree correlation then leads to a finite threshold $\lambda_{c}>0$ for SF networks with $2<\gamma \leq 3$. We also find, in this approximation, the fraction of infected individuals among those with degree $k$ for $\lambda$ close to $\lambda_{c}$. We investigate via computer simulation the contact process on a heterogeneous regular lattice and compare the results with those obtained from mean field theory with and without neglect of degree-degree correlations.Comment: 6 figure

'Resilience thinking' in transport planning

Resilience has been discussed in ecology for over forty years. While some aspects of resilience have received attention in transport planning, there is no unified definition of resilience in transportation. To define resilience in transportation, I trace back to the origin of resilience in ecology with a view of revealing the essence of resilience thinking and its relevance to transport planning. Based on the fundamental concepts of engineering resilience and ecological resilience, I define "comprehensive resilience in transportation" as the quality that leads to recovery, reliability and sustainability. Observing that previous work in resilience analysis in transportation has focussed on addressing engineering resilience rather than ecological resilience, I conclude that transformability has been generally overlooked and needs to be incorporated in the analysis framework for comprehensive resilience in transportation

Scale-Free topologies and Activatory-Inhibitory interactions

A simple model of activatory-inhibitory interactions controlling the activity of agents (substrates) through a "saturated response" dynamical rule in a scale-free network is thoroughly studied. After discussing the most remarkable dynamical features of the model, namely fragmentation and multistability, we present a characterization of the temporal (periodic and chaotic) fluctuations of the quasi-stasis asymptotic states of network activity. The double (both structural and dynamical) source of entangled complexity of the system temporal fluctuations, as an important partial aspect of the Correlation Structure-Function problem, is further discussed to the light of the numerical results, with a view on potential applications of these general results.Comment: Revtex style, 12 pages and 12 figures. Enlarged manuscript with major revision and new results incorporated. To appear in Chaos (2006

Resistance and resilience of social–ecological systems to recurrent typhoon disturbance on a subtropical island: Taiwan

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have major effects on ecological and social systems. However, studies integrating the effects of TCs on both social and ecological systems are rare, especially in the northwest Pacific, where the frequency of TCs (locally named typhoons) is the highest in the world. We synthesized studies of effects of recurrent typhoons on social and ecological systems in Taiwan over the last several decades. Many responses to TCs are comparable between social and ecological systems. High forest ecosystem resistance, evident from tree mortality below 2% even following multiple strong typhoons, is comparable with resistance of social systems, including the only 4% destruction of river embankments following a typhoon that brought nearly 3000 mm rainfall in three days. High resilience as reflected by quick returns of leaf area index, mostly in one year, and streamwater chemistry, one to several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of ecosystems, are comparable to quick repair of the power grid within one to several days and returns of vegetable price within several weeks to pre‐typhoon levels of the social systems. Landslides associated with intense typhoons have buried mountain villages and transported large quantities of woody debris to the coast, affecting the coastal plains and reefs, illustrating a ridge‐to‐reef link between ecological and societal systems. Metrics of both social and ecological function showed large fluctuations in response to typhoons but quickly returned to pre‐disturbance levels, except when multiple intense typhoons occurred within a single season. Our synthesis illustrates that the social–ecological systems in Taiwan are highly dynamic and responsive to frequent typhoon disturbance, with extraordinarily high resistance and resilience. For ecosystems, the efficient responsiveness results from the selective force of TCs on ecosystem structure and processes. For social systems, it is the result of the effects of TCs on planning and decision making by individuals (e.g., farmers), management sectors, and ultimately the government. In regions with frequent TCs, the social–ecological systems are inevitably highly dynamic and rapid responses are fundamental to system resistance and resilience which in turn is key to maintaining structure and function of the social–ecological systems

Catastrophic Phase Transitions and Early Warnings in a Spatial Ecological Model

Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc. produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness- may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, are more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapour change of state for a fluid like water

Modeling resilience and sustainability in ancient agricultural systems

The reasons why people adopt unsustainable agricultural practices, and the ultimate environmental implications of those practices, remain incompletely understood in the present world. Archaeology, however, offers unique datasets on coincident cultural and ecological change, and their social and environmental effects. This article applies concepts derived from ecological resilience thinking to assess the sustainability of agricultural practices as a result of long-term interactions between political, economic, and environmental systems. Using the urban center of Gordion, in central Turkey, as a case study, it is possible to identify mismatched social and ecological processes on temporal, spatial, and organizational scales, which help to resolve thresholds of resilience. Results of this analysis implicate temporal and spatial mismatches as a cause for local environmental degradation, and increasing extralocal economic pressures as an ultimate cause for the adoption of unsustainable land-use practices. This analysis suggests that a research approach that integrates environmental archaeology with a resilience perspective has considerable potential for explicating regional patterns of agricultural change and environmental degradation in the past

Bivariate stochastic modeling of functional response with natural mortality

A correction due to Abbott (1925) is the standard method of dealing with control mortality in insect bioassay to estimate the mortality of an insect conditional on control mortality not having occurred. In this article a bivariate stochastic process for overall mortality is developed in which natural mortality and predation are jointly modeled to take account of the competing-risks associated with prey loss. The total mortality estimate from this model is essentially identical with that from more classical modeling. However, when predation loss is estimated in the absence of control mortality the results are somewhat different, with the estimate from the bivariate model being lower than that from using Abbott’s formula in conjunction with the classical model. It is argued that overdispersion in observed mortality data corresponds to correlated outcomes (death or survival) for the prey initially present, while Abbott’s correction relies implicitly on independence